The coevolution of the spread of a disease and competing opinions in multiplex networks.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a proliferation of conflicting opinions on physical distancing across various media platforms, which has had a significant impact on human behavior and the transmission dynamics of the disease. Inspired by this social phenomenon, we present a novel UAP-SIS model to study the interaction between conflicting opinions and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks, in which individual behavior is based on diverse opinions. We distinguish susceptibility and infectivity among individuals who are unaware, pro-physical distancing and anti-physical distancing, and we incorporate three kinds of mechanisms for generating individual awareness. The coupled dynamics are analyzed in terms of a microscopic Markov chain approach that encompasses the aforementioned elements. With this model, we derive the epidemic threshold which is related to the diffusion of competing opinions and their coupling configuration. Our findings demonstrate that the transmission of the disease is shaped in a significant manner by conflicting opinions, due to the complex interaction between such opinions and the disease itself. Furthermore, the implementation of awareness-generating mechanisms can help to mitigate the overall prevalence of the epidemic, and global awareness and self-awareness can be interchangeable in certain instances. To effectively curb the spread of epidemics, policymakers should take steps to regulate social media and promote physical distancing as the mainstream opinion.

A Systematic Approach for Contextualizing Focal Structure Analysis in Social Networks

Focal Structures are key sets of individuals who may be responsible for coordinating events, protests, or leading citizen engagement efforts on social media networks. Discovering focal structures that can promote online social campaigns is important but complex. Unlike influential individuals, focal structures can effect large-scale complex social processes. In our prior work, we applied a greedy algorithm and bi-level decomposition optimization solution to identify focal structures in social media networks. However, the outcomes lacked a contextual representation of the focal structures that affected interpretability. In this research, we present a novel Contextual Focal Structure Analysis (CFSA) model to enhance the discovery and the interpretability of the focal structures to provide the context in terms of the content shared by individuals in the focal structures through their communication network. The CFSA model utilizes multiplex networks, where the first layer is the users-users network based on mentions, replies, friends, and followers, and the second layer is the hashtag co-occurrence network. The two layers have interconnections based on the user hashtag relations. The model's performance was evaluated on real-world datasets from Twitter related to domestic extremist groups spreading information about COVID-19 and the Black Lives Matter (BLM) social movement during the 2020–2021 time. The model identified Contextual Focal Structure (CFS) sets revealing the context regarding individuals’ interests. We then evaluated the model's efficacy by measuring the influence of the CFS sets in the network using various network structural measures such as the modularity method, network stability, and average clustering coefficient values. The ranking Correlation Coefficient (RCC) was used to conduct a comparative evaluation with real-world scenarios. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

The effect of information literacy heterogeneity on epidemic spreading in information and epidemic coupled multiplex networks.

With the COVID-19 pandemic, better understanding of the co-evolution of information and epidemic diffusion networks is important for pandemic-related policies. Using the microscopic Markov chain method, this study proposed an aware-susceptible-infected model (ASI) to explore the effect of information literacy on the spreading process in such multiplex networks. We first introduced a parameter that adjusts the self-protection related execution ability of aware individuals in order to emphasis the importance of protective behaviors compared to awareness in decreasing the infection probability. The model also captures individuals' heterogeneity in their information literacy. Simulation experiments found that the high information-literate individuals are more sensitive to information adoption. In addition, epidemic information can help to suppress the epidemic diffusion only when individuals' abilities of transforming awareness into actual protective behaviors attain a threshold. In communities dominated by highly literate individuals, a larger information literacy gap can improve awareness acquisition and thus help to suppress the epidemic among the whole group. By contrast, in communities dominated by low information-literate individuals, a smaller information literacy gap can better prevent the epidemic diffusion. This study contributes to the literature by revealing the importance of individuals' heterogeneity of information literacy on epidemic spreading in different communities and has implications for how to inform people when a new epidemic disease emerges.

Identification of COVID-19 Spreaders Using Multiplex Networks Approach.

In this work, we present a methodology to identify COVID-19 spreaders using the analysis of the relationship between socio-cultural and economic characteristics with the number of infections and deaths caused by the COVID-19 virus in different countries. For this, we analyze the information of each country using the complex networks approach, specifically by analyzing the spreaders countries based on the separator set in 5-layer multiplex networks. The results show that, we obtain a classification of the countries based on their numerical values in socioeconomics, population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), health and air connections; where, in the spreader set there are those countries that have high, medium or low values in the different characteristics; however, the aspect that all the countries belonging to the separator set share is a high value in air connections.

Role of Time Scales in the Coupled Epidemic-Opinion Dynamics on Multiplex Networks.

Modelling the epidemic's spread on multiplex networks, considering complex human behaviours, has recently gained the attention of many scientists. In this work, we study the interplay between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics on multiplex networks. An agent in the epidemic layer could remain in one of five distinct states, resulting in the SIRQD model. The agent's attitude towards respecting the restrictions of the pandemic plays a crucial role in its prevalence. In our model, the agent's point of view could be altered by either conformism mechanism, social pressure, or independent actions. As the underlying opinion model, we leverage the q-voter model. The entire system constitutes a coupled opinion-dynamic model where two distinct processes occur. The question arises of how to properly align these dynamics, i.e., whether they should possess equal or disparate timescales. This paper highlights the impact of different timescales of opinion dynamics on epidemic spreading, focusing on the time and the infection's peak.

Research on transmission model of consciousness of prevention and control among the public in major public health emergencies

COVID-19 epidemic is a major global public health emergency that rarely happened in a century. China has entered the normal stage of epidemic prevention and control after strenuous struggle. Epidemic prevention and control have been promoted synchronously with economic recovery. It is very important that how to realize the effective transmission for epidemic consciousness of prevention and control in the public at this stage of normalization of the epidemic. For this reason, a transmission dynamic model of consciousness of prevention and control in multiplex social networks formed by multiple channels is firstly established. Model analysis and simulation experiments are carried out to draw that it can make the consciousness of prevention and control transmit among public all the time as long as the proportion of owners with consciousness is above a critical value according to the threshold conditions for distinguishing whether the consciousness propagates. It is difficult to quickly raise consciousness of prevention and control for the public that communicating through a single channel. Online and offline multiple information channels are used in a balanced manner in order to maximize the efficiency of transmission. It can promote the transmission of consciousness of prevention and control as much as possible that scientifically and moderately increasing the number of daily communication. Once the number of public communication through multiple channels exceeds a certain limit, it will reduce the efficiency of transmission for consciousness of prevention and control. © 2021, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.

The Dynamical Interplay of Collective Attention, Awareness and Epidemics Spreading in the Multiplex Social Networks During COVID-19.

Leveraging social and communication technologies, we can digitally observe that the collective attention typically exhibits a heterogeneous structure. It shows that people's interests are organized in clusters around different topics, but the rising of an extraordinary emergency event, as the coronavirus disease epidemics, channels the people's attention into a more homogenized structure, shifting it as triggered by a non-random collective process. The connectedness of networked individuals, on multiple social levels, impacts on the attention, representing a tuning element of different behavioural outcomes, changing the awareness diffusion enough to produce effects on epidemics spreading. We propose a mathematical framework to model the interplay between the collective attention and the co-evolving processes of awareness diffusion, modelled as a social contagion phenomenon, and epidemic spreading on weighted multiplex networks. Our proposed modeling approach structures a systematically understanding as a social network marker of interdependent collective dynamics through the introduction of the multiplex dimension of both networked individuals and topics, quantifying the role of human-related factors, as homophily, network properties, and heterogeneity. We introduce a data-driven approach by integrating different types of data, digitally traced as user-generated data from Twitter and Google Trends, in response to an extraordinary emergency event as coronavirus disease. Our findings demonstrate how the proposed model allows us to quantify the reaction of the collective attention, proving that it can represent a social predictive marker of the awareness dynamics, unveiling the impact on epidemic spreading, for a timely crisis response planning. Simulations results shed light on the coherence between the data-driven approach and the proposed analytical model.

The coupled dynamics of information dissemination and SEIR-based epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) threatens the health and safety of all humanity. This disease has a prominent feature: the presymptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers can spread the disease. It is crucial to estimate the impact of this undetected transmission on epidemic outbreaks. Currently, disease-related information has been widely disseminated by the mass media. To investigate the impact of both individuals and mass media information dissemination on the epidemic spreading, we establish a new UAU-SEIR (Unaware-Aware-Unaware-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model with mass media on two-layer multiplex networks. In the model, E-state individuals denote asymptomatic infections, and a single node connecting to all individuals denotes the mass media. In this work, we use the Microscopic Markovian Chain Approach (MMCA) to derive the epidemic threshold. Comparing the MMCA theoretical results with Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, we find that the MMCA has a good consistency with MC simulations. In addition, we also analyze the impact of model parameters on epidemic spreading and epidemic threshold. The results show that reducing the proportion of asymptomatic infections, accelerating the dissemination of information between individuals and the dissemination of information via the mass media can effectively inhibit the epidemic spreading and raise the epidemic threshold.

Modeling partial lockdowns in multiplex networks using partition strategies.

National stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns, were imposed in several countries to drastically reduce the social interactions mainly responsible for the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite being essential to slow down the COVID-19 pandemic, these containment measures are associated with an economic burden. In this work, we propose a network approach to model the implementation of a partial lockdown, breaking the society into disconnected components, or partitions. Our model is composed by two main ingredients: a multiplex network representing human contacts within different contexts, formed by a Household layer, a Work layer, and a Social layer including generic social interactions, and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered process that mimics the epidemic spreading. We compare different partition strategies, with a twofold aim: reducing the epidemic outbreak and minimizing the economic cost associated to the partial lockdown. We also show that the inclusion of unconstrained social interactions dramatically increases the epidemic spreading, while different kinds of restrictions on social interactions help in keeping the benefices of the network partition. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41109-021-00366-7.

The impact of awareness diffusion on the spread of COVID-19 based on a two-layer SEIR/V-UA epidemic model.

In this paper, we propose a new susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-recovered with unaware-aware (SEIR/V-UA) model to study the mutual effect between the epidemic spreading and information diffusion. We investigate the dynamic processes of the model with a Kinetic equation and derive the expression for epidemic stability by the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. Then, we validate the model by the Monte Carlo method and numerical simulation on a two-layer scale-free network. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the spread of the epidemic in China prompted drastic measures for transmission containment. We examine the effects of these interventions based on modeling of the information-epidemic and the data of the COVID-19 epidemic case. The results further demonstrate that the epidemic spread can be affected by the effective transmission rate of awareness.